La Niña Expected to Shape Winter, Experts Say a Weak One for Washtenaw

Photo: Dexter’s Monument Park in winter. Photo by Doug Marrin

If you’ve noticed the weather acting a little strange lately, you’re not imagining things. Federal climate scientists say La Niña, the Pacific Ocean pattern known for nudging winter storms and temperatures across North America, is firmly in place as we head into winter.

In a new report released Nov. 13, the Climate Prediction Center announced that La Niña is expected to continue through the upcoming winter, before likely fading back to neutral conditions sometime between January and March 2026. Forecasters put the odds of that transition at 61 percent.

So What Does This Mean for Winter?

This La Niña is expected to stay weak.

A weak La Niña doesn’t pack the same punch as stronger ones that tend to bring crisp, snowy winters to the Great Lakes. But even a weaker event can nudge winter in certain directions.

Right now, climate models show La Niña most likely sticking around through December to February. Beyond that, scientists say the atmosphere becomes much less predictable, with nearly even odds between La Niña and neutral conditions by late winter.

What It Could Mean for Washtenaw County

Weak La Niña years in southeast Michigan often share a few traits. And while no two winters are identical, the pattern offers some hints:

• Slightly warmer-than-normal temperatures:
Weak La Niña events tend to push the jet stream a bit north, giving southern Michigan occasional warm spells that interrupt cold stretches. Think freeze-thaw cycles and roller-coaster weeks.

• Snowfall that’s hit-or-miss:
Unlike strong La Niña winters, which can boost lake-effect snow in west Michigan, weak events don’t have a consistent local signature. Washtenaw County often ends up with near-normal snowfall overall, but storms may be spaced farther apart, with longer quiet periods in between.

• More mixed-precipitation events:
A wavier jet stream can mean rain changing to snow (and back again). These are the systems that make road crews sweat and can turn sidewalks into skating rinks overnight.

• Potential for sharp temperature swings:
Weak La Niñas are notorious for variability. One week might feel like January, the next like early November.

In short: nothing extreme, but plenty of variety.

Four Takeaways

• La Niña is here.
• It’s likely to be weak.
• It may fade earlier than usual.
• For Washtenaw County, expect a winter of ups and downs rather than one defined by heavy snow or deep cold.